Questioning the ‘Good’luck Jonathan’s version of Democracy

One of the beauties of a truly democratic society is the freedom of expression and association, not only because these freedoms are fundamental human rights, but also because, every democratic government is expected to uphold that principle because they form the basic foundation of democracy. The opportunity given to citizens to express their opinions about the way they are governed is what makes democracy a ‘preferred’ style of government. However when a democratically elected government begin to act is such a manner that threatens these freedoms, then there is a big problem, and we need to start looking within and ask real questions. Questions like

• Is this democracy or dictatorship?
• Are our leaders true democrats who believe in the principle of democracy or are they just opportunist dictators who happens to be ‘rulers’ in a purported democratic society?
• Does the mere fact that we hold election, have a parliament means we are practising democracy?
• Is citizen participation part of our version of democracy?

These and many more are the questions we need answers for looking at the way and manner the GEJ led administration handled the mass resistance from Nigerians on fuel subsidy removal in last couple of days, especially the Monday 16^th January 2011 deployment of soldiers to Lagos and other protest sites in major cities. There have been reports of shoot at sight orders from the presidency during these protests, around 15 people were reported dead during these mass protests, many were  injured simply because they are exercising their constitutional rights in a democratic government. What then has changed from our experiences in the days of military dictatorship, the Abacha years is perhaps still very much around.

The provisions of Nigerian constitution to which GEJ swore to protect has been ignored and disregarded continuously and the president and his team has shown Nigerians that they are only interested in power and not the interest of the people. No matter what we were told… our expectations of a new breed of hope has been dashed, the government propaganda has failed, we no longer  trust them with our resources and we cannot guarantee their ability to perform and deliver the dividends of democracy for us.

Within a few days of mass action of the  #OccupyNigeria movement,  there has been allegation of human rights abuses and many human right groups has started to petition the International Criminal Court to commence investigations and possibly a prosecution.. What does this tells us? its clear, our growing democracy needs to be reformed. We need a comprehensive review of the definition of active participation of citizens in political debates and events. The handwriting is clearly written on the wall, when a democratically elected government begin to wage war against its people for exercising their constitutional rights, then that government becomes unpopular and efforts must commence to ask questions, and demand answers to them. I wondered everyday when we will learn from developed nation’s style of governance. Opposition and criticism is part of democracy, it is an important ingredient that makes our democracy robust, and being critical of the government simply means fuelling their desire to perform, When opposition is seen as a war, then we are far from being a democratic society.

 A new Nigeria is me and you lending our voice to deliver..Nigeria can because we can. Wouldn’t you rather join us?

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I am writing this post with tears in my heart, yet with excitement in my spirit. The Nigerian Labour Congress (NLC) and the Trade Union Congress (TUC) had just few minutes ago called off the national strike that was triggered by the fuel subsidy removal by the GEJ led Federal government, betraying the Nigerian masses, they have been bought as expected by the Nigerian government and we all know the reality behind their action.  However, one thing we need to remember is that the organised labour didn’t start this struggle in the first place and so we didn’t expect them to end it. Their intervention only amplified the voice of the people and now that they have compromised, we will continue to fight for what the Nigeria masses truly desire -true democracy, good governance and corruption free leaders.

For the past two weeks, the #OccupyNigeria movement has taken a substantial part of my life and that of many Nigerians across the globe, I led  the mobilisation of Nigerian students, youths and other residents here in the UK to put together the #OccupyNigeriaLondon protest, and about 500 angry Nigerians who gathered on Friday 6^th January made it clear to the Nigerian government that Nigerians in the UK and elsewhere in the world does not support the removal of subsidy at this time. We stood in solidarity with our brothers and sisters, saying it LOUDLY that the government must reverse this decision immediately. We continued to support and mobilise Nigerians from other parts of the world to stage similar protests to further express our dissatisfaction and excitingly, protest were successfully staged in different parts of the world from London to New York, to Washington, Johannesburg, Accra, Brussels, etc.. Nigerians for the first time in a long time stood together as a people to say NO to oppressive policy from the government. I had been following tweets and Facebook updates and continued to mobilise Nigerians for this struggle, I remained glued to my iPpad, iPhone and Macbook just to make sure I get all the updates and mobilise people to join the movement. And we made reasonable progress all week, we stood firm and made our position really clear and loud. But unfortunately, the labour’s decision this morning is a slap on the efforts of all Nigerians who have sacrificed time, resources and even their lives to this struggle.

But regardless of the decision of labour to call the strike off, the struggle will continue. They didn’t start the mobilisation and the protests in the first place. We will continue to fight the oppression of the government. We will continue to say NO to corruption and bad governance.

Whatever happens after today, one brilliant thing about the protests so far is that it has succeeded in mobilising ordinary Nigerians to become aware of the problems in our country and inspired the boldness to speak out, to express our anger and vexation about the insensitivities and insincerities of our leaders; pictures and videos from the protest as well tweets and Face book updates are proofs that Nigerians are tired and ready, it is evidence that we are ready to do what we have to do to get  what we truly deserve from our leaders, to make our leaders more accountable to us and to ensure that our opinion matters, after all that is what democracy is all about.

When I watched the ‘If I die, I die’ video on YouTube, I was shedding tears… this no doubt is a clear expression of dissatisfaction and the extent at which people are tired of clueless and insensitive leadership. Nigerians have defied police orders, even the deployment of combatant ready army to protest sites didn’t stop people from protesting, thanks to the mobilising power of the new media.. It is clear, we are tired and ready, we know now that Nigerians are no longer timid…our parents have refused to act, and if our generation do the same, the future of our children will even be worst. This is why we choose not be quite, this is why we will continue to fight. Ours is a commitment to New Nigeria. A Nigeria where political leaders will serve the people who elected them and not their pockets; a new Nigeria where genuine leaders will seek the interest of the people and serve in truth and honesty… A new Nigeria! A Nigeria where our children will be live amidst plenty and not be hungry… a Nigeria where university teachers will not go on strike for months and be ignored by the government, A new Nigeria where few leaders will stop stealing the money meant for the masses… a Nigeria where me and you will be proud to be Nigerians. This is the future and that future is possible.. But only when we act today… the #OccupyNigeria revolution has just begun.. Wouldn’t you rather be part of history?

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Presidential Address On The  Implementation Of The Deregulation Policy In The Downstream Sector Of The Petroleum Industry, Sunday, January 16, 2012

Dear Compatriots,

1. This is the second time in two weeks I will address you on the deregulation of the downstream petroleum sector. In the last seven days, the nation has witnessed a disruption of economic activities.  Although, the economic imperatives for the policy have been well articulated by government, the Nigerian Labour Congress (NLC) and the Trade Union Congress (TUC) went ahead to declare a nationwide strike
2.  There was also near-breakdown of law and order in certain parts of the country as a result of the activities of some persons or groups of persons who took advantage of the situation to further their narrow interests by engaging in acts of intimidation, harassment and outright subversion of the Nigerian state. I express my sympathy to those who were adversely affected by the protests.
3. At the inception of the deregulation policy, Government had set up the Justice Alfa Belgore Committee to liaise with Labour and other stakeholders to address likely grey areas in the policy, but despite all our efforts, Labour refused the option of dialogue and also disobeyed a restraining order of the National Industrial Court of Nigeria.
4.  However, following the intervention of the Leadership of the National Assembly, and other well-meaning Nigerians, Labour accepted to meet with government, but this yielded no tangible result.
5.  It has become clear to government and all well-meaning Nigerians that other interests beyond the implementation of the deregulation policy have hijacked the protest. This has prevented an objective assessment and consideration of all the contending issues for which dialogue was initiated by government. These same interests seek to promote discord, anarchy, and insecurity to the detriment of public peace.
6.  Government appreciates that the implementation of the deregulation policy would cause initial hardships and commends Nigerians who have put forth suggestions and credible alternatives in this regard. Government also salutes Nigerians who by and large, conducted themselves peacefully while expressing their grievances. Let me assure you that government will continue to respect the people’s right to express themselves within the confines of the law and in accordance with the dictates of our democratic space.
7. Government will continue to pursue full deregulation of the downstream petroleum sector. However, given the hardships being suffered by Nigerians, and after due consideration and consultations with state governors and the leadership of the National Assembly, government has approved the reduction of the pump price of petrol to N97 per litre. The Petroleum Products Pricing Regulatory Agency (PPPRA) has been directed to ensure compliance with this new pump price.
8.  Government is working hard to reduce recurrent expenditure in line with current realities and to cut down on the cost of governance. In the meantime, government has commenced the implementation of the Subsidy Reinvestment and Empowerment projects: including the Federal Government- assisted mass transit programme which is already in place, and job creation for the youth.
9. Furthermore, the legal and regulatory regime for the petroleum industry will be reviewed to address accountability issues and current lapses in the Industry. In this regard, the Petroleum Industry Bill will be given accelerated attention. The report of the forensic audit carried out on the NNPC is being studied with a view to implementing the recommendations and sanctioning proven acts of corruption in the industry.
10. Let me assure Nigerians that this administration is irrevocably committed to tackling corruption in the petroleum industry as well as other sectors of the economy. Consequently, all those found to have contributed one way or the other to the economic adversity of the country will be dealt with in accordance with the law.
11. My dear compatriots, I urge you to show understanding for the imperatives of the adjustment in the pump price of petrol and give government your full support to ensure its successful implementation. I further appeal to Nigerians to go back to work and go about their normal duties as government has made adequate arrangements for the protection of life and property throughout the federation.
12. Government will not condone brazen acts of criminality and subversion. As President, I have sworn to uphold the unity, peace and order of the Nigerian State and by the grace of God, I intend to fully and effectively discharge that responsibility.  Let me add that we are desirous of further engagements with Labour. I urge our Labour leaders to call off their strike, and go back to work.
13. Nigeria belongs to all of us and we must collectively safeguard its unity.
14.  Thank you. God bless the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

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Pastor ‘Tunde Bakare delivered this expose on Fuel Subsidy at The Latter Rain Assembly a few hours ago.

Please read, digest, and share with as many people as you can. Enough is ENOUGH.

FACTS YOU MUST KNOW: SUBSIDY MADE SIMPLE (SMS)

 1)      DEFINITION

To subsidise is to sell a product below the cost of production. Since the federal government has been secretive about the state of our refineries and their production capacity, we will focus on importation rather than production. So, in essence, within the Nigerian Fuel Subsidy context, to subsidise is to sell petrol below the cost of importation.

2)      THE UNSUBSTANTIATED CLAIMS OF THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT

The Nigerian government claims that Nigerians consume 34 million li

3)      ANNUAL COST OF IMPORTATION tres of petrol per day. The government

has also said publicly that N141 per litre is the unsubsidised pump price of petrol imported into Nigeria. (N131.70 kobo being the landing price and N9.30 kobo being profit.)

Daily Fuel Consumption:                    34 million litres  Cost at Pump:                                    N141.00

No. of days in a regular year:           365 days

Total cost of all petrol imported yearly into Nigeria:

Litres          Naira       Days 34m      x     141    x     365 = N1.75 trillion

4)      COST BORNE BY THE CONSUMERS  Nigerians have been paying N65 per litre for fuel, haven’t we? Therefore, cost borne by the consumers = 

• Litres          Naira     Days
• 34m      x     65    x     365
• = N807 billion

5)      COST OF SUBSIDY BORNE BY THE GOVERNMENT In 2011 alone, government claimed to have spent N1.3 trillion by October – the bill for the full year, assuming a constant rate of consumption is N1.56 trillion.Consequently, the true cost of subsidy borne by the government is: Total cost of importation minus total borne by consumers, i.e. N1.75 trillion minus N807 billion = N943 billion.

Unexplainable difference: N617 billion The federal government of Nigeria cannot explain the difference between the amount actually disbursed for subsidy and the cost borne by Nigerians (N1.56 trillion minus N943 billion = N617 billion).

6)      BOGUS CLAIM BY THE GOVERNMENT   A government official has claimed that the shortfall of N617 billion is what goes to subsidising our neighbours through smuggling. This is pathetic. But let us assume (assumption being the lowest level of knowledge) that the government is unable to protect our borders and checkmate the brisk smuggling going on. Even then, the figures still don’t add up. This is because even if 50% of the petrol consumed in each of our neighbouring countries is illegally exported from Nigeria, the figures are still inaccurate. Why?

WORLD BANK’S FIGURES: POPULATIONS OF WEST AFRICAN COUNTRIES 

• NIGERIA:                 158.4 million
• BENIN:                     8.8 million
• TOGO:                      6 million
• CAMEROUN:            19.2 million
• NIGER:                     15.5 million
• CHAD:                      11.2 million
• GHANA:                    24.4 million

The total population of all our six (6) neighbours is 85.5 million.

Let’s do some more arithmetic:

• a)      Rate of Petrol Consumption in Nigeria: Total consumed divided by total population: 34 million litres divided by 158.8 million people = 0.21 litres per person per day.
• b)      Rate of Petrol Consumption in all our 6 neighbouring countries, assumed to be the same as Nigeria: 0.2 litres x 85.5 million people = 18.35 million litres per day

Now, if we assume that 50% of the petrol consumed in all the six neighbouring countries comes from Nigeria, this value come to 9.18 million litres per day.

7)      PATHETIC ABSURDITY   There are two illogicalities flowing from this smuggling saga.

• a)      If 9.18 million litres of petrol is truly smuggled out of our borders per day, then ours is the most porous nation in the word. This is why: The biggest fuel tankers in Nigeria have a capacity of about 36,000 litres. To smuggle 9.18 million litres of fuel, you need 254 trucks. What our government is telling us is that 254 huge tankers pass through our borders every day and they cannot do anything about it. This is not just acute incompetence, but also a serious security challenge. For if the government cannot stop 254 tanker trailers from crossing the border daily, how can they stop importation of weapons or even invasion by a foreign country?
• b)      2nd illogicality: Even if we believe the government and assume that about 9.18 million litres is actually taken to our neighbours by way of smuggling every day, and all this is subsidised by the Nigerian government, the figures being touted as subsidy still don’t add up. This is why:

Difference between pump price before and after subsidy removal = N141.00 – N65.00 = N76.00

Total spent on subsidizing petrol to our neighbours annually =

N76.00 x 9.18 million litres x 365 days = N255 billion    If you take the N255 billion away from the N617 billion shortfall that the government cannot explain, there is still a shortfall of N362 billion. The government still needs to tell us what/who is eating up this N362 billion ($2.26 billion USD).

8)      ILLOGICAL ASSUMPTIONS 

• i)                    We have assumed that there are no working refineries in Nigeria and so no local petrol production whatsoever – yet, there is, even if the refineries are working below capacity.
• ii)                  Nigeria actually consumes 34 million litres of petrol per day. Most experts disagree and give a figure between 20 and 25 million litres per day. Yet there is still an unexplainable shortfall even if we use the   exaggerated figure of the government.
• iii)                Ghana, Togo, Benin, Cameroun, Niger, and Chad all consume the same rate as Nigeria and get 50% of their petrol illegally from Nigeria through smuggling.

These figures simply show the incompetence and insincerity of our government officials. This is pure banditry.

9)      FACT 9: The simplest part of the fuel subsidy arithmetic will reveal one startling fact: That the government does not need to subsidise our petrol at all if we reject corruption and sleaze as a way of life. Check this out:

•  a)      NNPC crude oil allocation for local consumption = 400,000 barrels per day (from a total of 2.450 million barrels per day).
• b)      If our refineries work at just 30%, 280,000 barrels can be sold on the international market, leaving the rest for local production.
• c)      Money accruing to the federal government through NNPC on the sale, using $80/bbl – a conservative figure as against the current price of $100/bbl – would be $22.4m per day. Annually this translates to $8.176bn or N1.3 trillion.
• d)     The government does not need to subsidise our petrol imports – at least not from the Federation Account. The same crude that should have been refined by NNPC is simply sold on the international market (since our refineries barely work) and the money is used to buy petrol. The 400,000 barrels per day given to NNPC for local consumption can either be refined by NNPC or sold to pay for imports. This absurdity called subsidy should be funded with this money, not the regular FGN budget.

If the FGN uses it regular budget for subsidising petrol, then what happens to the crude oil given to NNPC for local refining that gets sold on the international market?

10)  TACTICAL BLUNDER  |  The federal government is making the deregulation issue a revenue problem. Nigerians are not against deregulation. We have seen deregulation in the telecom sector and Nigerians are better for it, as even the poor have access to telephones now right before the eyes of those who think it is not for them. What is happening presently is not deregulation but an all-time high fuel pump increase, unprecedented in the history of our nation by a government that has gone broke due to excessive and reckless spending largely on themselves. If the excesses of all the three tiers of government are seriously curbed, that would free enough money for infrastructural development without unduly punishing the poor citizens of this country. Let me just cite, in closing, the example of National Assembly excesses and misplaced spending as contained in the 2012 budget proposal:

1. Number of Senators                                                                    109
2. Number of Members of the House of Representatives              360
3. Total Number of Legislators                                                         469
4. 2012 Budget Proposal for the National Assembly                       N150 billion
5. Average Cost of Maintaining Each Member                                N320 million
6. Average Cost of Maintaining Each Member in USD                    $2.1 million/year

Time has come for the citizens of this country to hold the government accountable and demand the prosecution of those bleeding our nation to death. Until this government downsizes, cuts down its profligacy and leads by example in modesty and moderation, the poor people of this country will not and must not subsidise the excesses of the oil sector fat cats and the immorality cum fiscal scandal of the self-centred and indulgent lifestyles of those in government.

Here is a hidden treasure of wisdom for those in power while there is still time to make amends:

PROVERBS 21:6&7    “Getting treasures by a lying tongue is the fleeting fantasy of those who seek death. The violence of the wicked will destroy them because they refuse to do just.”

A word of counsel for those who voted for such soulishly indulgent leadership:  “Never trust a man who once had no shoes, or you may end up losing your legs.”  This is the conclusion of the matter on subsidy removal:

•  “If a ruler pays attention to lies, all his servants become wicked.” (Proverbs 29:12)
• “The Righteous God wisely considers the house of the wicked, overthrowing the wicked for their wickedness. Whoever shuts his ears to the cry of the poor will also cry himself and will not be heard.” (Proverbs 21:12&13)

Thanks for your attention. God bless you all.

Pastor ‘Tunde Bakare

Sunday, January 15, 2012

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Photos from #OccupyNigeria London Fuel Subsidy protest at Nigeria House London 6th January 2012

Around 500 Nigeria students, youths and other residents in the UK gathered at the Nigeria House-the Embassy of Nigeria in UK to protest the removal of fuel subsidy by Goodluck Jonathan govt. 6th January 2012. The petition delivered to the Nigeria High Commission in London for transmission to President Good luck Jonathan can be found here. is available here

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no comments - Fuel Subsidy Removal in Nigeria + lekan oshunkoya + Nigerians students protest in London + Nigerians students protest in London 2012 + Occupy Nigeria + Occupy Nigeria London + olalekan oshunkoya + photos from London fuel subsidy protest + Students Association of Nigerians in Diaspora (SAND)

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